SIPRI Yearbook 2026: Key Highlights
India's Defence Profile
- Military Spending: India ranked 5th globally in 2025, with defence expenditure of USD 92.1 billion (8.9% increase from 2024)
- Arms Imports: Second-largest importer globally (2021-25), accounting for 8.2% of global arms imports
- Security Environment: Shaped by nuclear rivalry with Pakistan, strategic competition with China, and unravelling multilateral security frameworks
India's Nuclear Arsenal (January 2026)
| Country | Warheads |
|---|---|
| India | 190 (12 deployed, 178 reserve) |
| China | 620 |
| Pakistan | 170 |
Cyber Warfare Integration: The May 2025 India-Pakistan military confrontation ("Operation Sindoor") marked the first-time integration of cyber operations into active military conflict between the two nations.
Global Nuclear Dynamics
Nuclear-Armed States
The nine nuclear-armed states (US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel) continue:
- Modernizing their arsenals
- Increasing reliance on nuclear weapons as instruments of national power
Global Nuclear Inventory
- Total estimated warheads: ~12,187
- Warheads in military stockpiles: ~9,745
- Deployed with missiles/aircraft: Over 4,000
- US-Russia share: ~86% of global warheads
Critical Developments
- NATO spending target: Raised to 5.0% GDP by 2035 (June 2025), up from 2.0% benchmark
- Ukraine's military burden: 40% of GDP (highest globally)
- New START Treaty: Expired February 2026 with no replacement
- Arms control withdrawals: Lithuania became first state to withdraw from Convention on Cluster Munitions
India's Nuclear Doctrine (2003)
Core Principles
- Credible Minimum Deterrence: Maintain sufficient arsenal to ensure costs of nuclear strike against India would be unbearable
- No First Use (NFU): Nuclear weapons only in retaliation to nuclear attack on Indian territory or forces
- Massive Retaliation: Response will inflict incalculable damage (based on MAD concept)
- Strict Civilian Control: Authority rests with Nuclear Command Authority (NCA)
Nuclear Command Authority Structure
| Council | Chair | Function |
|---|---|---|
| Political Council | Prime Minister | Sole body authorized to release nuclear weapons |
| Executive Council | National Security Advisor | Provides inputs, executes directives |
Additional Provisions
- Negative Security Assurance: No use against Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS)
- Conditional Use: Retains option against major CBW strike
- Disarmament Commitment: Supports verifiable, non-discriminatory elimination
Evolution of India's Nuclear Posture
Phase 1: Peaceful Nuclear Program (1947-1974)
- Led by Homi J. Bhabha and Jawaharlal Nehru
- "Smiling Buddha" (Pokhran-I): First nuclear test on 18 May 1974
- Officially labeled "Peaceful Nuclear Explosion" (PNE)
Phase 2: Weaponization (1974-1998)
- International sanctions and NSG formation
- China-Pakistan nuclear nexus concerns
- Operation Shakti (Pokhran-II): Five underground tests in May 1998
- PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee declared India a nuclear-weapon state
- National Technology Day: 11th May (commemorates Pokhran-II)
Phase 3: Established Power (1998-Present)
- Nuclear Doctrine drafted (1999), operationalized (2003)
- 2008 US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement
- NSG waiver obtained
India's Stance on Global Nuclear Treaties
Not Signed
- NPT (1968): Considered discriminatory; only addresses horizontal proliferation
- CTBT (1996): Lacks credible verification framework
- TPNW (2017): Opposed due to absence of comprehensive verification regime
Membership Achieved
- Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)
- Wassenaar Arrangement
- Australia Group
Pursuing
- Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership
Emerging Technologies in Warfare
Artificial Intelligence
- AI-assisted targeting deployed in Gaza and Ukraine
- Autonomous weapon systems in active conflict zones
Drone Warfare
- Swarm drones and FPV UAVs altering combat tactics
- Operation Spider's Web (June 2025): Ukraine used 100+ smuggled drones to damage Russian aircraft
Constitutional and Policy Framework
- No First Use Doctrine: Core of India's nuclear policy
- Nuclear Command Authority: Established under executive order
- Civilian control principle: Ensures democratic oversight of nuclear decisions
- Disarmament commitment: Aligned with Article 51 of Indian Constitution (fundamental principles of international relations)
Significance for UPSC Preparation
This topic encompasses:
- India's security architecture
- International relations and treaties
- Technology in modern warfare
- Defence economics
- Constitutional provisions on foreign policy