Key Highlights of the MSV Report

Loss of Instrument-Making Culture

  • India has almost entirely lost its domestic instrument-manufacturing capacity
  • Critical environmental data relies on imported equipment
  • Imported instruments routinely operated without proper calibration for years
  • "Incorrect data being reported in national and international journals"
  • Global questions being raised regarding credibility of Indian scientific output

Foreign Dependency for Earth System Models (ESMs)

  • Earth System Model combines oceanic, land surface, and atmospheric data to simulate long-term climate trajectories
  • Indian models primarily adapted from the US and Europe
  • Foreign models highly sensitive to regional inputs they were never designed to integrate
  • Models inadequate for India's specific climatic conditions

Procurement Challenges

  • Mandatory use of Government e-Marketplace (GeM) prioritized lowest-bidding vendors
  • Vendors often failed to supply customized, high-precision equipment
  • Global tenders delayed by lengthy bureaucratic procedures
  • Finance Ministry (June 2025): Relaxed procurement norms allowing select institutions to procure scientific instruments outside GeM for purchases up to Rs 200 crore

Paris Agreement Commitment

  • India's target: 500 GW non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030
  • Report warns: long-term climate consequences of massive solar and wind installations remain "poorly understood"
  • Requires systematic, long-term environmental monitoring

Structural Constraints in Indian Meteorological Forecasting

Geographical and Climatic Asymmetry

  • Comparing India's forecasting accuracy with temperate nations (US, UK) is fundamentally flawed
  • India's tropical climate is inherently more dynamic and unpredictable
  • Lacks systematic meteorological stability of higher latitudes

Climate Change Multiplier

  • Ongoing climate crisis fracturing historical weather patterns
  • Traditional predictive baseline models less reliable
  • Future weather phenomena becoming highly erratic and divergent from past data

Macro-Micro Predictability Gap

  • Macro-level: IMD can accurately predict monsoon trajectories, widespread heatwaves
  • Micro-level: Anticipating hyper-local anomalies (isolated cloudbursts) remains exceptionally difficult

India's Meteorological Forecasting Initiatives

  • Mission Mausam: Comprehensive weather modernization initiative
  • Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS): Indigenous forecasting system
  • Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF): Risk-based weather predictions
  • AI-Enabled Forecast of Monsoon Advance: Machine learning integration
  • Doppler Weather Radars: Enhanced precipitation tracking
  • SkyCast System: Developed by Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) under Mission Mausam
  • Advanced atmospheric remote sensing for aviation weather monitoring
  • Real-time fog, aerosols, turbulence, moisture, visibility measurements
  • Aims for "fog-free" aviation framework
  • Reduces flight delays, cancellations, diversions

About Mega Science Vision-2035 (MSV) Report

  • Prepared by: Indian climate research community
  • Nodal Institution: Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru
  • Submitted to: Office of Principal Scientific Adviser (PSA) to Union Government
  • Objective: Outline future trajectory, priorities, and funding requirements for climate research

Key Recommendations

  1. Mega Projects: Eight projects involving advanced observatories, dedicated satellites, field campaigns, in-situ monitoring networks, and indigenous sensor development (phased till 2035)
  1. Indigenous Earth System Model: Build domestic ESM "from first principles" leveraging AI and Machine Learning for context-specific geographic and atmospheric conditions
  1. Boost Domestic Manufacturing: Targeted investments to revive domestic production of scientific instruments and calibration technologies
  1. Expand Monitoring Networks: Surface weather stations, ocean buoy networks, greenhouse gas monitoring systems to eliminate geographical "blind spots"
  1. Implement "Polluter Pays": Devise scientific methods to estimate Social Cost of Carbon (economic cost of damages from an extra ton of CO₂) and implement strict mechanism

Other Identified Gaps

  • Inadequate research on carbon capture and storage technologies
  • Weak integration of environmental surveillance data with public health data
  • Absence of comprehensive framework to embed climate considerations across broader public policy